8 Storylines for the 2011 College Football Season

Friend of mine on Facebook is still looking to fill out his Fantasy Football team. I have exactly one team allegiance: My home team (the ever-risky Houston Texans). I'm not going to be rooting for the Minnesota running back just because I have a fantasy team. Fuck Minnesota. This is a team sport, not an individual sport. Make a Fantasy Track & Field team, or fantasy UFC team, and we'll see how things go. I feel guilty enough already rooting for the Texans and Seahawks simultaneously, and they only play each other once every four years.

Despite those diverse 32 teams, college football always has interesting storylines, particularly if you have any kind of investment in even one of the 120 teams playing at the highest level of college football this year. Next year that number moves to 122. That by itself is an interesting storyline, though I suppose less so if you have no Texas ties.

Or is it.....?

(1) If you DO have Texas ties, you know that since the old Southwest Conference imploded back in the 1990s, Texas has been a member of the 12-team Big 12 (see how that works?). Last year two teams left that conference. Which is fine; TV contracts were for 12 teams, now that dollar amount is divided 10 ways instead of 12, meaning everyone gets a little richer. Now Texas A&M wants out, citing interest in "an undisclosed conference." Now that's just silly. But everyone wants to get paid.

As a result, the Big 12 wants a replacement team immediately. Oh, 10 is okay, but 9 isn't? This makes no sense. There is no significant difference in revenue with a 9-team conference vs. 10. Granted, 10 is one higher than 9 (yes, I have a college degree), but with 12 you have a shit-load more money from a conference championship game. 12 is the magic number, hence why the Big Ten now has 12 teams, that's why the SEC went there in the 1990s, that's why we now, this year, have the Pac-12, and not that Pac-10. Does the Big 12 think nobody will WANT to join their conference if they wait? Silly Republicans. If you write the check, they will come.

Schools are still accepting membership in the Big East, for crying out loud, and that ship sailed years ago. The Big 12 will be just fine. Even without Texas, the remaining schools would be high-profile enough to make a go of it. You don't just STOP being a BCS team... there's a certain prestige that goes along with it. So much so that, even when the Big East gave up its only 3 good teams back on 2005, people are still taking that conference seriously 6 years later. And you're telling me Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State can't make a go of it? Pshaw. Pshaw I say. I SAYS PSHAW.

But, should the Big 12 jump and add a new 10th team, "dominos will fall," as the sports media keeps saying. Even if it's one team from the MWC or Big East, those conferences will absolutely choose replacement members. Probably from the WAC or Conference USA. The WAC will need to replenish or die; Conference USA would rather be at 12 than less; see above comment about championship game. Everyone slides up one. Teams you never gave a crap about are now rivals. GOOD TIMES. The system expands and diversity reigns. Let's get out of Texas for a minute, but this one point at the top is that this one thing affects EVERYONE.

(Beacuse Texas A&M is a beautiful butterfly. A beautiful butterfly that flaps its wings, and creates a tornado the size of AMERICA).

(2) The PAC-12. It's been the Pac-10 since 1978. Arizona and Arizona State have been largely coasting in football, while fielding occasionally decent basketball teams. The California schools have been doing vice versa (except UCLA). Now suddenly a team has a chance of finishing in 12th place, as opposed to 10th place? How embarrassing for you. Granted, it doesn't seem to bother Vanderbilt, Baylor, Duke football, Illinois, Indiana, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Mississippi, Mississippi State, or Virginia, but that's the price you pay. We hope everyone in this conference will try a little harder. But suddenly everyone pays a little more attention to Colorado (especially on the west coast), and Utah fields its first BCS-conference team, making it only the 3rd MST state to do so (after AZ and CO). The Mountain Time Zone is pretty sparse, population-wise, but they are growing. Next up, a school from Idaho. Or possibly, maybe, a 2nd school from either Colorado or Utah. Stay tuned.

(3) Nebraska in the Big Ten. Is every team in the old Big 12 North terribly overrated, or is the recent Big 10 terribly overrated? And if both are true, how will we know? Difficult to tell, but we know this much is true: In the last ten years, there have been a lot more people who actively care about the Big Ten, than actual quality teams. And now Ohio State is sanctioned, and Wisconsin and Penn State are coming off record years... after many previous years of mediocrity. Which do you think is more likely to manifest in 2011? Stay tuned.

(4) The Big East is still absolute crap, in football. If they tanked it this year, they might even stand a chance to lose their auto-BCS bid, EXCEPT, they have perennial BCS-favorite TCU joining in 2012. Those cheeky bastards. Maybe the Big 12 really will snatch up the Horned Frogs, thus driving the wooden stake through the heart of the undead BE. One can only dream.

(5) Boise State to the Mountain West. For one glorious year, they share a conference with a range of better teams than their old conference, most notably TCU. This will be entertaining football every week, which is the entire point of college football. And what makes them more worthy of an automatic bid than the Big East could ever hope. What's that, you say? West Virginia is playing Connecticut in a must-win game? That's okay. I'll flip over to it in a minute, after this rerun of "Who's the Boss?"*

(6) BYU. As in independent? Moderately hilarious. They have to do a lot better than Notre Dame to even be invited to a bowl game. Granted, their basketball team may be more interesting this year, what with joining the massively-underfunded WCC-- it's a bit like entering your Ford Focus in a bicycle race-- but an actual high-profile team joining the dregs of Independent-hood? Good luck with that. Enjoy your 8-4 season and no bowl game. Whatever makes the boosters happy... I guess....?

(7) The Sun Belt Conference. Wait, who? Shut up. They have three bowl tie-ins, which is technically more than the MAC (they only officially have two, but somehow manage to get a third team into some random game every year). They share the same geographical area as the SEC and C-USA. Barring poaching, they're moving up to 10 teams next year, which gives them more than the WAC and the same as the Mountain West. You might even find you enjoy the games, too... they're no longer the worst FBS conference. They're no longer even the 2nd-worst, and 2012 will absolutely cinch that.

(8) Texas State and UT-SA. Wait, who? Yes. The former has received an upgrade in both head coach and stadium, the latter has their first season this year, and will play in the Alamodome. San Antonio was previously the largest U.S. city WITHOUT a BCS team. Will local interest make them blow up like Boise State? Too early to tell. But everyone loves an underdog, and they're bound to be a damn site better than New Mexico State, Idaho, or San Jose State. Which is really all the WAC will have next year once these two teams join. Also San Marcos is awesome, and could use some FBS money. That town has far, far too much dirt.

... All this starts this week. It runs through the new year. Last year the teams in the championship game hailed from the SEC and Pac-10... this year I'm totally calling out the Big Ten and SEC... not because I have faith in the Big Ten in any way, but just because a late-season championship game will totally bump the winner up the rankings. Unless, of course, the Mountan West does something awesome with math.... which I'd love to see more than anything.

Except, of course, for my girlfriend naked. Hi, sweetie.

keeping it real,
wgh/paXIII

...


*author of blog does not actually watch "Who's the Boss?" for any reason. He does, however, enjoy the WNBA and re-runs of 'Knight Rider.'

July 1st is Almost Upon Us

July 1st is the day any D-I university must declare its intention to leave its conference, if it wishes to join a new one for the 2012-13 season. That date is 7 days away and apparently it's not like the trade deadline. Nobody is trying to sneak in under the wire.

Previously, we had Nebraska and Colorado and Utah bolt for other BCS conferences, Boise State move up to the MWC, BYU bolt for no conference at all. For 2011-12, that was it.

Boise State was late to that game, but I'm sure the invite took them by surprise, but a welcome one at that. Other dominoes (nay, Jenga pieces) began to fall shortly thereafter, these for the 2012-13 season: Fresno State and Nevada joining the MWC in all sports. Hawaii joining the MWC in football only. TCU leaving the MWC for the Big East. Denver leaving the Sun Belt for the WAC, just as Texas State and UT-San Antonio leave the FCS Southland for the lights of the WAC as well.

So far, that's it. Any big move at the top has ripple effects all the way to the bottom, and UTSA (no football until 2011) and Denver (no football at all) are pretty much as far down as you're gonna get. Sure, UMass has plans to join the MAC in football, and Charlotte, Georgia State, UTSA and South Alabama are all starting football programs (or in the case of Lamar, re-starting), but as far as major-conference realignment, Nebraska was the highest-profile move, and Denver was the lowest-profile. Citizens of Colorado might disagree, but... again. they don't play football, and even their basketball team wasn't very good. TxST and UTSA at least have that one extra sport they might get lucky in.

My point: with UMass' recent announcment and schools like Villanova undecided about an FBS move, that leaves the Big East with eight football teams in 2011, nine teams in 2012 (and 853 in basketball). Nine is plenty for a major conference; that's four conference home games and four away per season.

The Mountain West, with BYU and TCU out and Utah State turning them down, will have ten teams going into 2012. Ten teams if they do nothing in the next seven days-- had Utah State said yes, the MWC would have eleven teams, and would seem a lock to be adding another, and soon, to qualify for a conference championship game in December 2012. But USU said no, TCU ran off in search of instant gratification, leaving the MWC with ten. Is ten enough? Could they stop here and be content for a number of years? Most likely, it would seem... the signs all point to "most likely."

The WAC will have 8 in 2011, and as of right now, 7 in 2012. Sure, they'll be stocked up on basketball, but 7 football programs in a major conference? This could be a problem. Montana: turned you town. North Texas: turned you down. How WAC commissioner could have so much go wrong and yet still keep his job is something of a mystery. And yet there he still sits, seven days until a confirmed, locked-on SEVEN teams for the 2012 football season. Well done, Mr. Benson. I do not envy you the headache you shall have to endure for the next year, at least.

At the top of things, it seems unlikely the Big 12 will add anyone soon (which we base mostly on the fact that they told the media "we won't be adding anyone anytime soon"), and besides, their current contract with ESPN was signed for 12 teams, and they are currently spreading 12-teams worth of money over ten teams, meaning a bigger check for everyone, from Texas down to Iowa State. Good for them. Play hard to get; the neighbors will shape up.

On the other end, though, in 2012, South Alabama will join the Sun Belt in football. Okay, they'll be ineligiable to win a championship that first year, but they'll be FBS, bringing the Sun Belt to ten teams. Meanwhile, the SB loses Denver in basketball in 2012, bringing them DOWN to eleven teams in that sport, and out of divisional play. The divisional format would work better for such an unwieldy conference, you would think, but something tells me the Southland won't be in a very giving mood, after having just lost two Texas schools to an entirely difference division. Will 11 and 10 leave the Sun Belt content? They claim yes, I'm not so sure.

But if no one makes a move between today (Friday) and July 1st (next Friday)... all these numbers hold from now until July 1st, 2012... and nothing new will happen until the 2013 season.

And that is a long, long time away. I don't want to wait, I've got shit to do.