Friend of mine on Facebook is still looking to fill out his Fantasy Football team. I have exactly one team allegiance: My home team (the ever-risky Houston Texans). I'm not going to be rooting for the Minnesota running back just because I have a fantasy team. Fuck Minnesota. This is a team sport, not an individual sport. Make a Fantasy Track & Field team, or fantasy UFC team, and we'll see how things go. I feel guilty enough already rooting for the Texans and Seahawks simultaneously, and they only play each other once every four years.
Despite those diverse 32 teams, college football always has interesting storylines, particularly if you have any kind of investment in even one of the 120 teams playing at the highest level of college football this year. Next year that number moves to 122. That by itself is an interesting storyline, though I suppose less so if you have no Texas ties.
Or is it.....?
(1) If you DO have Texas ties, you know that since the old Southwest Conference imploded back in the 1990s, Texas has been a member of the 12-team Big 12 (see how that works?). Last year two teams left that conference. Which is fine; TV contracts were for 12 teams, now that dollar amount is divided 10 ways instead of 12, meaning everyone gets a little richer. Now Texas A&M wants out, citing interest in "an undisclosed conference." Now that's just silly. But everyone wants to get paid.
As a result, the Big 12 wants a replacement team immediately. Oh, 10 is okay, but 9 isn't? This makes no sense. There is no significant difference in revenue with a 9-team conference vs. 10. Granted, 10 is one higher than 9 (yes, I have a college degree), but with 12 you have a shit-load more money from a conference championship game. 12 is the magic number, hence why the Big Ten now has 12 teams, that's why the SEC went there in the 1990s, that's why we now, this year, have the Pac-12, and not that Pac-10. Does the Big 12 think nobody will WANT to join their conference if they wait? Silly Republicans. If you write the check, they will come.
Schools are still accepting membership in the Big East, for crying out loud, and that ship sailed years ago. The Big 12 will be just fine. Even without Texas, the remaining schools would be high-profile enough to make a go of it. You don't just STOP being a BCS team... there's a certain prestige that goes along with it. So much so that, even when the Big East gave up its only 3 good teams back on 2005, people are still taking that conference seriously 6 years later. And you're telling me Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State can't make a go of it? Pshaw. Pshaw I say. I SAYS PSHAW.
But, should the Big 12 jump and add a new 10th team, "dominos will fall," as the sports media keeps saying. Even if it's one team from the MWC or Big East, those conferences will absolutely choose replacement members. Probably from the WAC or Conference USA. The WAC will need to replenish or die; Conference USA would rather be at 12 than less; see above comment about championship game. Everyone slides up one. Teams you never gave a crap about are now rivals. GOOD TIMES. The system expands and diversity reigns. Let's get out of Texas for a minute, but this one point at the top is that this one thing affects EVERYONE.
(Beacuse Texas A&M is a beautiful butterfly. A beautiful butterfly that flaps its wings, and creates a tornado the size of AMERICA).
(2) The PAC-12. It's been the Pac-10 since 1978. Arizona and Arizona State have been largely coasting in football, while fielding occasionally decent basketball teams. The California schools have been doing vice versa (except UCLA). Now suddenly a team has a chance of finishing in 12th place, as opposed to 10th place? How embarrassing for you. Granted, it doesn't seem to bother Vanderbilt, Baylor, Duke football, Illinois, Indiana, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Mississippi, Mississippi State, or Virginia, but that's the price you pay. We hope everyone in this conference will try a little harder. But suddenly everyone pays a little more attention to Colorado (especially on the west coast), and Utah fields its first BCS-conference team, making it only the 3rd MST state to do so (after AZ and CO). The Mountain Time Zone is pretty sparse, population-wise, but they are growing. Next up, a school from Idaho. Or possibly, maybe, a 2nd school from either Colorado or Utah. Stay tuned.
(3) Nebraska in the Big Ten. Is every team in the old Big 12 North terribly overrated, or is the recent Big 10 terribly overrated? And if both are true, how will we know? Difficult to tell, but we know this much is true: In the last ten years, there have been a lot more people who actively care about the Big Ten, than actual quality teams. And now Ohio State is sanctioned, and Wisconsin and Penn State are coming off record years... after many previous years of mediocrity. Which do you think is more likely to manifest in 2011? Stay tuned.
(4) The Big East is still absolute crap, in football. If they tanked it this year, they might even stand a chance to lose their auto-BCS bid, EXCEPT, they have perennial BCS-favorite TCU joining in 2012. Those cheeky bastards. Maybe the Big 12 really will snatch up the Horned Frogs, thus driving the wooden stake through the heart of the undead BE. One can only dream.
(5) Boise State to the Mountain West. For one glorious year, they share a conference with a range of better teams than their old conference, most notably TCU. This will be entertaining football every week, which is the entire point of college football. And what makes them more worthy of an automatic bid than the Big East could ever hope. What's that, you say? West Virginia is playing Connecticut in a must-win game? That's okay. I'll flip over to it in a minute, after this rerun of "Who's the Boss?"*
(6) BYU. As in independent? Moderately hilarious. They have to do a lot better than Notre Dame to even be invited to a bowl game. Granted, their basketball team may be more interesting this year, what with joining the massively-underfunded WCC-- it's a bit like entering your Ford Focus in a bicycle race-- but an actual high-profile team joining the dregs of Independent-hood? Good luck with that. Enjoy your 8-4 season and no bowl game. Whatever makes the boosters happy... I guess....?
(7) The Sun Belt Conference. Wait, who? Shut up. They have three bowl tie-ins, which is technically more than the MAC (they only officially have two, but somehow manage to get a third team into some random game every year). They share the same geographical area as the SEC and C-USA. Barring poaching, they're moving up to 10 teams next year, which gives them more than the WAC and the same as the Mountain West. You might even find you enjoy the games, too... they're no longer the worst FBS conference. They're no longer even the 2nd-worst, and 2012 will absolutely cinch that.
(8) Texas State and UT-SA. Wait, who? Yes. The former has received an upgrade in both head coach and stadium, the latter has their first season this year, and will play in the Alamodome. San Antonio was previously the largest U.S. city WITHOUT a BCS team. Will local interest make them blow up like Boise State? Too early to tell. But everyone loves an underdog, and they're bound to be a damn site better than New Mexico State, Idaho, or San Jose State. Which is really all the WAC will have next year once these two teams join. Also San Marcos is awesome, and could use some FBS money. That town has far, far too much dirt.
... All this starts this week. It runs through the new year. Last year the teams in the championship game hailed from the SEC and Pac-10... this year I'm totally calling out the Big Ten and SEC... not because I have faith in the Big Ten in any way, but just because a late-season championship game will totally bump the winner up the rankings. Unless, of course, the Mountan West does something awesome with math.... which I'd love to see more than anything.
Except, of course, for my girlfriend naked. Hi, sweetie.
keeping it real,
wgh/paXIII
...
*author of blog does not actually watch "Who's the Boss?" for any reason. He does, however, enjoy the WNBA and re-runs of 'Knight Rider.'
Showing posts with label big 12. Show all posts
Showing posts with label big 12. Show all posts
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Monday, June 27, 2011
5 Ways to Fix the Big 12
I didn't really see that title as all that titillating, but I suppose there's the possibility that someone will see that and think,"That's ridiculous, there's nothing wrong with the Big 12."
That person is an idiot. If that person is you, then yes, I just called you an idiot. Please keep reading my blog.
5) Kick Iowa State the fuck out.
First of all, this is not without precedent. Six years ago, the Big East kicked Temple out, because Temple wasn't committed to athletics, and this from a conference that is to football what Jay Leno is to comedy. Sure, you have a bigger stage than most, but you still suck at it.
So why is the Big 12 holding on to Iowa State? Is it their long-standing athletic tradition? (impossible). Is it the juggernaut that is the Ames, IA media market? (this seems unlikely). Is it loyalty from the leaner Big 8 years? Granted, ISU has been paired up with the former Big 8 teams for over 100 years, but this being modern college football, we've seen what a premium is placed in loyalty as Nebraska, Utah, Colorado, Miami, Boston College, Boise State and TCU have all jumped conferences at the drop of a hat in the last few years, and head football coaches do it even more than that. Nebraska first joined the Big 8 a year before Iowa State did, and just dumped the Big 12 faster than Mel Gibson's agent dumped Mel Gibson. This is the nature of the sport. Fuck loyalty; let's take the money.
It might be something if ISU won games, and I really can't be bothered to check, maybe they have an outstanding golf team or even soccer team, on the men's or women's side. But what pays the bills is football and basketball, and Iowa State has never excelled at either one. They don't even seem interested in excelling. They just teach their students to be intelligent, educated men and women, while sitting back on the athletic side of things, and collect their checks. No wonder revenue sharing is uneven in the Big 12. If the Big 12 were a band, Iowa State is the drummer. Would YOU pay the drummer the same as the singer/songwriter head of the band? If you do, you're an idiot. Sure, maybe you've known that drummer since you were 13, and maybe he just got out of rehab and really, REALLY needs this gig. But if a member isn't pulling their weight, you're just kidding yourself. It's not like there aren't good bands out there. ISU has been making BCS money since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996, and if they gave a damn about athletics, maybe they could be sharing space in the Big Ten with the Iowa Hawkeyes by this point. Nope. Now they're just the distant cousin up north, spending way too much money to fly football players down to Austin or Norman to lose.
This isn't the pro leagues. You don't get rewarded for losing. Toss 'em.
4) Tell UT to go fuck itself.
Obviously, you want Texas in your conference. The Pac-12 sure did. But being the big fat guy who also has huge muscles and a Humvee does not mean everyone should do what you say; it just means you're an asshole. Major conference draw? Duh. But so is Ohio State in the Big Ten, Florida in the SEC, and Florida State in the ACC, and they all managed to do it without twisting the arm of every other conference member and making them say "Uncle."
The current deal is worth a shitload of money to UT, but I disagree with the assumption that UT couldn't be making a shitload of money in any situation. Sure, traditionalists will point to Notre Dame, but there's a reason UM, OSU, FSU, UF, USC, UCLA and even Air Force are in major collegiate conferences-- because it makes financial sense. All the other conferences share the money, grow the brand, help each other out. They all work to get better and showcase a marketable, appealing product (even Vanderbilt has shown signs of athletic prowess these past few years), and as they grow together, so too can they undertake new opportunities together, as with the new Big Ten network, the SEC network, the Pac-12 network... there are huge amounts of money to be made here. Meanwhile, if I'm an OU alum, how likely am I to watch "The Longhorn Network?" Answer: Not very likely. Because nobody likes a spoiled child.
3) Financially Restructure
Texas is large, but it's not as large as the nine remaining Big 12 universities. Granted, when the last ESPN and FSN contracts were negotiated, it was for X amount of money to be divided among 12 teams... with 2 teams gone, that dollar amount remains the same, except now divided ten ways instead of 12. More money for everyone. BUT... when that contract is up, it's time for the other nine schools to get in UT's face and say they want to share everything equally so they can all grow equally. Yes, taking advantage of the little guy is a very Red State way of doing things, and Texas is among the reddest of the red states. But in every other conference, this system has failed, and the equal-share system has worked for everyone's benefit. If you truly feel a particular institution is not pulling their weight and doesn't deserve an equal share-- make them earn their keep, or kick them out. See previous point.
The result here is the chance to grow the revenue pulled in, in Missouri and Oklahoma and other parts of Texas. The Big Ten and Pac-12 could get this just fine, and nobody got hurt. Hell, Ohio State has surpassed UT as the largest student body in the country... what have you got to lose, UT? Ya chicken?
2) Make Sweet, Sweet Love to the Fox Sports Network
Pop quiz, hotshot: Where are the ESPN offices/studios? If you said Los Angeles or Bristol CT, congratulations, you are correct. They sure to mention it a lot, and that's the largest sports network in the nation.
Now, where are the Fox Sports offices located?
Unless you're from there, you may not know: technicians operate in Houston TX, broadcasters broadcast from Dallas TX. I have a sneaking suspicion this is because Texas is a right-to-work state and FSN therefore doesn't have to worry about those pesky unions and their bathroom breaks, but that's neither here nor there; I know someone who works for FSN and he does very well. The point is, these offices are in Texas and this is a golden opportunity.
East and West coast bias exists, to the point we don't even notice it. Sure, the sports media still jumped all over Lebron's junk when we has in Cleveland, but the ACC and Big East still regularly get more coverage in the sports world than the Big 12, despite the Big East being terrible at football, and the ACC finishing the 2011 football season with zero ranked teams, in addition to underwhelming in basketball, or at least the majority of the teams anyway. If Fox Sports can get into the homes of the big media markets in Los Angeles, Boston, Miami, Philadelphia, why not inform their viewers what they've been missing in the Central Time Zone? ... And maybe they have. But sharing the 2nd-most populous state in the nation with the HIGHEST number of FBS schools in the country (ten since 2001, it goes up to 12 in 2012) must create some pretty great opportunities. Take them. Because nobody else is gonna notice it's only LA and NY talking, if it's only LA and NY talking.
1) For the Love of my Ass, Go Back to 12 teams
There's a reason the Big 12 is ten teams in 2011... see #3 on the list. The FSN contract was just resigned, the ESPN contract goes through 2013 or 2014. That's 12 teams worth of money being split only ten ways, and everybody wants to cash that check. Perhaps it's even enough to offset not having a conference title game.
But not forever.
Say you've booted Iowa State, and you're down to nine. This has its upsides (4 conferences home games, 4 away games a season), but convenience isn't the same as increasing your revenue stream. And so you look to expand and build rivalries.
The problem is, unlike every other major conference, you're not on a coast. And I do use that term loosely (yes, I know, nobody refers to "The Great Lake Coasts"), but you see what I'm saying. The Pac-10 for years owned the west coast, it's only in the last 12 months they took possession of the equally-thinly populated Mountan Time Zone. The Big East and Big Ten have teams in the EST and CST. The ACC owns the 12 best teams on the eastern seaboard. And of course there's the SEC, that hotbed of recruitment, making more money than anyone, with a strangehold on the deep south.
Well, sirs, I submit to you that much like the old Big 12 North, the SEC West is weak. Granted, it's still the SEC, so even their weak arm could kick the ass of your entire family, but the heart of the conference is in the east, in Florida and Georgia and their annual rivalry. Yes, Auburn and Alabama have had a nice run, but it's hardly typical for a conference that prides itself on tradition and history. And if the Big 12 could offer LSU or Arkansas as much money as they make in the SEC, those schools might consider moving. Which the Big 12 COULD do, if they followed suggestions 5-2 on my list.
Even without that move, there are still major media markets that better get their asses in gear if they want to be considered around the middle of the decade. Currently, Memphis has an adequate basketball program, but their football is terrible. You could almost say the same thing about Louisiana Tech, and while granted their women's hoops team far outshines their men's team, the same can be said for Tennessee, and that school has been doing pretty okay.
You want to show people you're not weak, you have to push back. If not a team in Tennessee or Louisiana (or Arkansas), why not a unversity in Ohio or Michigan? The MAC has its share sleeping giants, often ranked but with their coaches getting hired away by bigger temptations as soon as they taste any success. Why WOULDN'T the Big 12 want to recruit in Ohio, or Michigan, or Missouri, or even Colorado or Tennessee? That's where the money is. You're sure not going to make any extra by adding TCU or Tulsa, no matter how good they are.
Every conference-moving team (except Temple) has moved up into a geographically-sensible conference that is nearly on the same level as the conference they left. A Sun Belt team, for example, would never make the jump directly to the Big 12 or SEC, but when the ACC expanded, they went to the Big East. The Big East went to Conference USA, and C-USA went to the WAC. The Mountain West drew from the WAC and C-USA, and now the Pac-12 has snapped up a Mountain West team. There are not 2-tiers in college football... there are three, and the Big East, Mountain West and Conference USA are right in the middle.
The Big 12 has a decision to make and they have half of a decade to make it. And they MUST make it, because in 2012 the Mountain West will have the same number of members they do, and will begin honing in on its territory (if they don't take TCU back, UTEP and Tulsa are right there, and UNT's athletics budget will surpass TCU's by 2013). That is how you stay at the top of your game and relevant, and Texas cannot do it by itself. If they could, they would, but when you're culturally obligated to play Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State every year, you might as well make it official and keep the conference. But new rivalries are okay, too.
In the meantime, 2011 and 2012 will be boring in Texas. UT or OU will win the conference every year, there will be no championship game, and whether or not they win their BCS bowl game, they'll be unable to prove anything late in the season. Competition is good... and the Big 12 needs to find some.
Or else that crisis we nearly averted a year ago... the Big 12 might not be so lucky next time.
That person is an idiot. If that person is you, then yes, I just called you an idiot. Please keep reading my blog.
5) Kick Iowa State the fuck out.
First of all, this is not without precedent. Six years ago, the Big East kicked Temple out, because Temple wasn't committed to athletics, and this from a conference that is to football what Jay Leno is to comedy. Sure, you have a bigger stage than most, but you still suck at it.
So why is the Big 12 holding on to Iowa State? Is it their long-standing athletic tradition? (impossible). Is it the juggernaut that is the Ames, IA media market? (this seems unlikely). Is it loyalty from the leaner Big 8 years? Granted, ISU has been paired up with the former Big 8 teams for over 100 years, but this being modern college football, we've seen what a premium is placed in loyalty as Nebraska, Utah, Colorado, Miami, Boston College, Boise State and TCU have all jumped conferences at the drop of a hat in the last few years, and head football coaches do it even more than that. Nebraska first joined the Big 8 a year before Iowa State did, and just dumped the Big 12 faster than Mel Gibson's agent dumped Mel Gibson. This is the nature of the sport. Fuck loyalty; let's take the money.
It might be something if ISU won games, and I really can't be bothered to check, maybe they have an outstanding golf team or even soccer team, on the men's or women's side. But what pays the bills is football and basketball, and Iowa State has never excelled at either one. They don't even seem interested in excelling. They just teach their students to be intelligent, educated men and women, while sitting back on the athletic side of things, and collect their checks. No wonder revenue sharing is uneven in the Big 12. If the Big 12 were a band, Iowa State is the drummer. Would YOU pay the drummer the same as the singer/songwriter head of the band? If you do, you're an idiot. Sure, maybe you've known that drummer since you were 13, and maybe he just got out of rehab and really, REALLY needs this gig. But if a member isn't pulling their weight, you're just kidding yourself. It's not like there aren't good bands out there. ISU has been making BCS money since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996, and if they gave a damn about athletics, maybe they could be sharing space in the Big Ten with the Iowa Hawkeyes by this point. Nope. Now they're just the distant cousin up north, spending way too much money to fly football players down to Austin or Norman to lose.
This isn't the pro leagues. You don't get rewarded for losing. Toss 'em.
4) Tell UT to go fuck itself.
Obviously, you want Texas in your conference. The Pac-12 sure did. But being the big fat guy who also has huge muscles and a Humvee does not mean everyone should do what you say; it just means you're an asshole. Major conference draw? Duh. But so is Ohio State in the Big Ten, Florida in the SEC, and Florida State in the ACC, and they all managed to do it without twisting the arm of every other conference member and making them say "Uncle."
The current deal is worth a shitload of money to UT, but I disagree with the assumption that UT couldn't be making a shitload of money in any situation. Sure, traditionalists will point to Notre Dame, but there's a reason UM, OSU, FSU, UF, USC, UCLA and even Air Force are in major collegiate conferences-- because it makes financial sense. All the other conferences share the money, grow the brand, help each other out. They all work to get better and showcase a marketable, appealing product (even Vanderbilt has shown signs of athletic prowess these past few years), and as they grow together, so too can they undertake new opportunities together, as with the new Big Ten network, the SEC network, the Pac-12 network... there are huge amounts of money to be made here. Meanwhile, if I'm an OU alum, how likely am I to watch "The Longhorn Network?" Answer: Not very likely. Because nobody likes a spoiled child.
3) Financially Restructure
Texas is large, but it's not as large as the nine remaining Big 12 universities. Granted, when the last ESPN and FSN contracts were negotiated, it was for X amount of money to be divided among 12 teams... with 2 teams gone, that dollar amount remains the same, except now divided ten ways instead of 12. More money for everyone. BUT... when that contract is up, it's time for the other nine schools to get in UT's face and say they want to share everything equally so they can all grow equally. Yes, taking advantage of the little guy is a very Red State way of doing things, and Texas is among the reddest of the red states. But in every other conference, this system has failed, and the equal-share system has worked for everyone's benefit. If you truly feel a particular institution is not pulling their weight and doesn't deserve an equal share-- make them earn their keep, or kick them out. See previous point.
The result here is the chance to grow the revenue pulled in, in Missouri and Oklahoma and other parts of Texas. The Big Ten and Pac-12 could get this just fine, and nobody got hurt. Hell, Ohio State has surpassed UT as the largest student body in the country... what have you got to lose, UT? Ya chicken?
2) Make Sweet, Sweet Love to the Fox Sports Network
Pop quiz, hotshot: Where are the ESPN offices/studios? If you said Los Angeles or Bristol CT, congratulations, you are correct. They sure to mention it a lot, and that's the largest sports network in the nation.
Now, where are the Fox Sports offices located?
Unless you're from there, you may not know: technicians operate in Houston TX, broadcasters broadcast from Dallas TX. I have a sneaking suspicion this is because Texas is a right-to-work state and FSN therefore doesn't have to worry about those pesky unions and their bathroom breaks, but that's neither here nor there; I know someone who works for FSN and he does very well. The point is, these offices are in Texas and this is a golden opportunity.
East and West coast bias exists, to the point we don't even notice it. Sure, the sports media still jumped all over Lebron's junk when we has in Cleveland, but the ACC and Big East still regularly get more coverage in the sports world than the Big 12, despite the Big East being terrible at football, and the ACC finishing the 2011 football season with zero ranked teams, in addition to underwhelming in basketball, or at least the majority of the teams anyway. If Fox Sports can get into the homes of the big media markets in Los Angeles, Boston, Miami, Philadelphia, why not inform their viewers what they've been missing in the Central Time Zone? ... And maybe they have. But sharing the 2nd-most populous state in the nation with the HIGHEST number of FBS schools in the country (ten since 2001, it goes up to 12 in 2012) must create some pretty great opportunities. Take them. Because nobody else is gonna notice it's only LA and NY talking, if it's only LA and NY talking.
1) For the Love of my Ass, Go Back to 12 teams
There's a reason the Big 12 is ten teams in 2011... see #3 on the list. The FSN contract was just resigned, the ESPN contract goes through 2013 or 2014. That's 12 teams worth of money being split only ten ways, and everybody wants to cash that check. Perhaps it's even enough to offset not having a conference title game.
But not forever.
Say you've booted Iowa State, and you're down to nine. This has its upsides (4 conferences home games, 4 away games a season), but convenience isn't the same as increasing your revenue stream. And so you look to expand and build rivalries.
The problem is, unlike every other major conference, you're not on a coast. And I do use that term loosely (yes, I know, nobody refers to "The Great Lake Coasts"), but you see what I'm saying. The Pac-10 for years owned the west coast, it's only in the last 12 months they took possession of the equally-thinly populated Mountan Time Zone. The Big East and Big Ten have teams in the EST and CST. The ACC owns the 12 best teams on the eastern seaboard. And of course there's the SEC, that hotbed of recruitment, making more money than anyone, with a strangehold on the deep south.
Well, sirs, I submit to you that much like the old Big 12 North, the SEC West is weak. Granted, it's still the SEC, so even their weak arm could kick the ass of your entire family, but the heart of the conference is in the east, in Florida and Georgia and their annual rivalry. Yes, Auburn and Alabama have had a nice run, but it's hardly typical for a conference that prides itself on tradition and history. And if the Big 12 could offer LSU or Arkansas as much money as they make in the SEC, those schools might consider moving. Which the Big 12 COULD do, if they followed suggestions 5-2 on my list.
Even without that move, there are still major media markets that better get their asses in gear if they want to be considered around the middle of the decade. Currently, Memphis has an adequate basketball program, but their football is terrible. You could almost say the same thing about Louisiana Tech, and while granted their women's hoops team far outshines their men's team, the same can be said for Tennessee, and that school has been doing pretty okay.
You want to show people you're not weak, you have to push back. If not a team in Tennessee or Louisiana (or Arkansas), why not a unversity in Ohio or Michigan? The MAC has its share sleeping giants, often ranked but with their coaches getting hired away by bigger temptations as soon as they taste any success. Why WOULDN'T the Big 12 want to recruit in Ohio, or Michigan, or Missouri, or even Colorado or Tennessee? That's where the money is. You're sure not going to make any extra by adding TCU or Tulsa, no matter how good they are.
Every conference-moving team (except Temple) has moved up into a geographically-sensible conference that is nearly on the same level as the conference they left. A Sun Belt team, for example, would never make the jump directly to the Big 12 or SEC, but when the ACC expanded, they went to the Big East. The Big East went to Conference USA, and C-USA went to the WAC. The Mountain West drew from the WAC and C-USA, and now the Pac-12 has snapped up a Mountain West team. There are not 2-tiers in college football... there are three, and the Big East, Mountain West and Conference USA are right in the middle.
The Big 12 has a decision to make and they have half of a decade to make it. And they MUST make it, because in 2012 the Mountain West will have the same number of members they do, and will begin honing in on its territory (if they don't take TCU back, UTEP and Tulsa are right there, and UNT's athletics budget will surpass TCU's by 2013). That is how you stay at the top of your game and relevant, and Texas cannot do it by itself. If they could, they would, but when you're culturally obligated to play Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State every year, you might as well make it official and keep the conference. But new rivalries are okay, too.
In the meantime, 2011 and 2012 will be boring in Texas. UT or OU will win the conference every year, there will be no championship game, and whether or not they win their BCS bowl game, they'll be unable to prove anything late in the season. Competition is good... and the Big 12 needs to find some.
Or else that crisis we nearly averted a year ago... the Big 12 might not be so lucky next time.
Friday, June 24, 2011
July 1st is Almost Upon Us
July 1st is the day any D-I university must declare its intention to leave its conference, if it wishes to join a new one for the 2012-13 season. That date is 7 days away and apparently it's not like the trade deadline. Nobody is trying to sneak in under the wire.
Previously, we had Nebraska and Colorado and Utah bolt for other BCS conferences, Boise State move up to the MWC, BYU bolt for no conference at all. For 2011-12, that was it.
Boise State was late to that game, but I'm sure the invite took them by surprise, but a welcome one at that. Other dominoes (nay, Jenga pieces) began to fall shortly thereafter, these for the 2012-13 season: Fresno State and Nevada joining the MWC in all sports. Hawaii joining the MWC in football only. TCU leaving the MWC for the Big East. Denver leaving the Sun Belt for the WAC, just as Texas State and UT-San Antonio leave the FCS Southland for the lights of the WAC as well.
So far, that's it. Any big move at the top has ripple effects all the way to the bottom, and UTSA (no football until 2011) and Denver (no football at all) are pretty much as far down as you're gonna get. Sure, UMass has plans to join the MAC in football, and Charlotte, Georgia State, UTSA and South Alabama are all starting football programs (or in the case of Lamar, re-starting), but as far as major-conference realignment, Nebraska was the highest-profile move, and Denver was the lowest-profile. Citizens of Colorado might disagree, but... again. they don't play football, and even their basketball team wasn't very good. TxST and UTSA at least have that one extra sport they might get lucky in.
My point: with UMass' recent announcment and schools like Villanova undecided about an FBS move, that leaves the Big East with eight football teams in 2011, nine teams in 2012 (and 853 in basketball). Nine is plenty for a major conference; that's four conference home games and four away per season.
The Mountain West, with BYU and TCU out and Utah State turning them down, will have ten teams going into 2012. Ten teams if they do nothing in the next seven days-- had Utah State said yes, the MWC would have eleven teams, and would seem a lock to be adding another, and soon, to qualify for a conference championship game in December 2012. But USU said no, TCU ran off in search of instant gratification, leaving the MWC with ten. Is ten enough? Could they stop here and be content for a number of years? Most likely, it would seem... the signs all point to "most likely."
The WAC will have 8 in 2011, and as of right now, 7 in 2012. Sure, they'll be stocked up on basketball, but 7 football programs in a major conference? This could be a problem. Montana: turned you town. North Texas: turned you down. How WAC commissioner could have so much go wrong and yet still keep his job is something of a mystery. And yet there he still sits, seven days until a confirmed, locked-on SEVEN teams for the 2012 football season. Well done, Mr. Benson. I do not envy you the headache you shall have to endure for the next year, at least.
At the top of things, it seems unlikely the Big 12 will add anyone soon (which we base mostly on the fact that they told the media "we won't be adding anyone anytime soon"), and besides, their current contract with ESPN was signed for 12 teams, and they are currently spreading 12-teams worth of money over ten teams, meaning a bigger check for everyone, from Texas down to Iowa State. Good for them. Play hard to get; the neighbors will shape up.
On the other end, though, in 2012, South Alabama will join the Sun Belt in football. Okay, they'll be ineligiable to win a championship that first year, but they'll be FBS, bringing the Sun Belt to ten teams. Meanwhile, the SB loses Denver in basketball in 2012, bringing them DOWN to eleven teams in that sport, and out of divisional play. The divisional format would work better for such an unwieldy conference, you would think, but something tells me the Southland won't be in a very giving mood, after having just lost two Texas schools to an entirely difference division. Will 11 and 10 leave the Sun Belt content? They claim yes, I'm not so sure.
But if no one makes a move between today (Friday) and July 1st (next Friday)... all these numbers hold from now until July 1st, 2012... and nothing new will happen until the 2013 season.
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