July 1st is the day any D-I university must declare its intention to leave its conference, if it wishes to join a new one for the 2012-13 season. That date is 7 days away and apparently it's not like the trade deadline. Nobody is trying to sneak in under the wire.
Previously, we had Nebraska and Colorado and Utah bolt for other BCS conferences, Boise State move up to the MWC, BYU bolt for no conference at all. For 2011-12, that was it.
Boise State was late to that game, but I'm sure the invite took them by surprise, but a welcome one at that. Other dominoes (nay, Jenga pieces) began to fall shortly thereafter, these for the 2012-13 season: Fresno State and Nevada joining the MWC in all sports. Hawaii joining the MWC in football only. TCU leaving the MWC for the Big East. Denver leaving the Sun Belt for the WAC, just as Texas State and UT-San Antonio leave the FCS Southland for the lights of the WAC as well.
So far, that's it. Any big move at the top has ripple effects all the way to the bottom, and UTSA (no football until 2011) and Denver (no football at all) are pretty much as far down as you're gonna get. Sure, UMass has plans to join the MAC in football, and Charlotte, Georgia State, UTSA and South Alabama are all starting football programs (or in the case of Lamar, re-starting), but as far as major-conference realignment, Nebraska was the highest-profile move, and Denver was the lowest-profile. Citizens of Colorado might disagree, but... again. they don't play football, and even their basketball team wasn't very good. TxST and UTSA at least have that one extra sport they might get lucky in.
My point: with UMass' recent announcment and schools like Villanova undecided about an FBS move, that leaves the Big East with eight football teams in 2011, nine teams in 2012 (and 853 in basketball). Nine is plenty for a major conference; that's four conference home games and four away per season.
The Mountain West, with BYU and TCU out and Utah State turning them down, will have ten teams going into 2012. Ten teams if they do nothing in the next seven days-- had Utah State said yes, the MWC would have eleven teams, and would seem a lock to be adding another, and soon, to qualify for a conference championship game in December 2012. But USU said no, TCU ran off in search of instant gratification, leaving the MWC with ten. Is ten enough? Could they stop here and be content for a number of years? Most likely, it would seem... the signs all point to "most likely."
The WAC will have 8 in 2011, and as of right now, 7 in 2012. Sure, they'll be stocked up on basketball, but 7 football programs in a major conference? This could be a problem. Montana: turned you town. North Texas: turned you down. How WAC commissioner could have so much go wrong and yet still keep his job is something of a mystery. And yet there he still sits, seven days until a confirmed, locked-on SEVEN teams for the 2012 football season. Well done, Mr. Benson. I do not envy you the headache you shall have to endure for the next year, at least.
At the top of things, it seems unlikely the Big 12 will add anyone soon (which we base mostly on the fact that they told the media "we won't be adding anyone anytime soon"), and besides, their current contract with ESPN was signed for 12 teams, and they are currently spreading 12-teams worth of money over ten teams, meaning a bigger check for everyone, from Texas down to Iowa State. Good for them. Play hard to get; the neighbors will shape up.
On the other end, though, in 2012, South Alabama will join the Sun Belt in football. Okay, they'll be ineligiable to win a championship that first year, but they'll be FBS, bringing the Sun Belt to ten teams. Meanwhile, the SB loses Denver in basketball in 2012, bringing them DOWN to eleven teams in that sport, and out of divisional play. The divisional format would work better for such an unwieldy conference, you would think, but something tells me the Southland won't be in a very giving mood, after having just lost two Texas schools to an entirely difference division. Will 11 and 10 leave the Sun Belt content? They claim yes, I'm not so sure.
But if no one makes a move between today (Friday) and July 1st (next Friday)... all these numbers hold from now until July 1st, 2012... and nothing new will happen until the 2013 season.
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