The Big 12 is not going to make it.
A stalwart Power Five conference for over 20 years now, this is not a conference that runs itself like an organization that wants to stick around. Members have struggled to make the football playoff (and will continue to do so), the conference does not have a TV network (and never will, while the Longhorn Network exists), Baylor has failed in their commitment to keep students safe, and newest member West Virginia is 872 miles from their nearest conference-mate, Iowa State.
As Underdogs, we are in a unique position to see the writing on the wall. When the WAC became too top-heavy at 16 teams, back in the late 1990’s, we watched the top teams bolt to form the Mountain West. When the realignment dominoes fell again a few years ago, the WAC was forced to drop football completely, unable to find new membership or enough competition on the field to continue. The WAC, in many ways, was the Big 12 of the Group-of-Five.
And much like the WAC, Big 12 basketball remains strong. Its football, however, remains weak, and a title game that will pit two two teams that already played each other during the regular season will do little to help. Sure, it’ll pass the buck down the line by a season or two, but eventually fans will see what we have known for some time: The Big 12 leadership is not serious about the conference surviving.
This makes no sense, and either they have their reasons, or ignore the entire sports world when given reasons why they are quite literally running the conference into the ground. That’s their business. And the Big 12 already has a blog elsewhere on SB Nation, who perhaps can give reasons why the Big 12 might survive after all. But if the conference doesn’t make changes, it will indeed fall apart, as all the problems that contributed to that first scare are still very much in place.
-------------------
First, some background, bringing that back to the Group of Five for a moment: In 2016, the Sun Belt Conference announced it would not renew football-only contracts with New Mexico State or Idaho. While NMSU will become an independent after their last SBC season in 2017, Idaho has opted to drop-down to the FCS level. Many news outlets commented that the Vandals were the first school to do so, because this is obviously not a common occurrence.
Despite this, you might be thinking, it’s still ridiculous for a Power Five team to drop down to the Group-of-Five level. That would obviously never happen.
Except it did, when Temple was kicked out of the Big East after the 2004 season.
Now that we’ve discovered precedent, a couple of caveats:
Number one, this is serious. The Big 12 leadership has consistently proven itself to ignore basic logical principles of business and college football growth and success, and when the time came to restock its numbers after losing four teams, the conference did literally the minimum amount of work and then rested on its laurels. Meanwhile, the ACC kept adding teams to project strength after being raided by the stronger Big Ten, and perhaps as a result, now has two National Titles to show for it.
Number two, we recognize not all these teams would fall so far when the Big 12 does finally implode. The futures of Texas and Oklahoma are absolutely secure, and either or both could play as independents for the foreseeable future, and not only have success on the field but in their bank accounts as well. It is because of this success that fans of the Big 12 think the future of the conference is secure. This assumption is reliant on Big 12 leadership doing the correct and wise thing, for which they have shown little aptitude.
Number three, as Underdog Dynasty covers football exclusively, this is an article about football. Having an exceptional basketball team will not help you here (sorry, Kansas), though it certainly doesn’t hurt.
So, here we are. At some point in a year, maybe three or five, if the Big 12 does not make major changes (or add members), the conference will die. As Underdogs, we have seen it before, and this is a clear warning. In the event of your untimely demise, this is where you land, and it should be noticed we’ll be happy to have any of these schools. Even Iowa State.
Top Tier: The Unstoppables
Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Texas is one of the largest universities in the nation, and its annual rivalry with Oklahoma make these two a package deal wherever they go. You wouldn’t split Florida & Georgia into two different conferences, just like you wouldn’t split Michigan and Ohio State. Some things are sacred. That rivalry plus the Sooners’ in-state rivalry with the Cowboys, not to mention the Cowboys continued success in football and basketball, means these three are the only locks to remain Power Five in the event of being set adrift. If Notre Dame can go on its own, these three are in a unique position to do so.
Secondary Tier: The Take ‘em or Leave ‘em
Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech
Original members of the Big 12, the athletic programs here are perceived as being equal to their fellow Power Five brethren— despite lack of general success overall. Kansas remains one of the top basketball programs in the nation, and Kansas State is the only current conference member not named Texas or Oklahoma to win a conference title (2003 solo, 2012 co-champs). Is this enough to form a cornerstone of a new Power Five conference? Perhaps. But lack of geographical options means either they’d entice a handful of Mountain West teams to form a basketball power conference, or else they can bite the bullet and simply join the existing AAC.
The football budgets at the Kansas schools would take a hit, of course, but odds are Texas Tech would not notice, as their athletic department is clearly not interested in anything other than nine wins a year and a bowl game. The evidence to support this is spread out over the last twenty years.
Bottom Tier: The Leftovers
Texas Tech
Already listed above as on the same level as Kansas and Kansas State, the Red Raiders straddle the line as their only hope of remaining Power Five is as a package deal with Kansas and Kansas State, and staking their claim as a basketball power conference.
Despite this, Texas Tech has never won a conference championship in football or men’s basketball, appearing in the latter title game only once, losing in 2005. They are routinely outplayed by the women’s team, one of the best programs in the state, as the women’s Raiders squad actually did win the conference twice, in 1998 and 1999. Those were great teams, but titles from 18 years ago are not enough to make a case for Power Five football or basketball. If Kansas+Kansas State go it alone, or join the Big Ten, Texas Tech would make an excellent addition to the Mountain West conference, and annual games between Boise State and the Red Raiders would surely produce some high-flying, high-score results.
Baylor
The Bears joined the Big 12 when it was created in 1996. The Bears did not have a single winning season until 2010, when Art Briles arrived. Art Briles was then fired in one of the biggest college football scandals of the last twenty years, a scandal still ongoing as we continue to learn more about the damage caused by the lack of action from both the university and its athletic department.
There are those who are calling for the death penalty for this program, but this is not a punishment the NCAA has seemed interested in instituting again. They did not institute it when a member of the basketball team was convicted of murder in the early 2000s, and the NCAA did not institute it when Penn State coaches were accused of assaulting children or failing to report the behavior of fellow coaches.
No, Baylor will not be receiving any kind of athletic death penalty, but certainly no one else would want them in the event of them becoming a free agent. It is not in their budget to go independent, and they will need local teams to play as they’ve not been interested in travelling too far as a football team.
In the last five years, the only time they’ve traveled out of state for a non-conference opponent, other than a bowl game, was one half of a home-and-home with the MAC’s Buffalo in 2014. In 2017 they are schedule to travel to Duke, but then play host to FCS squads in 2018 and 2020, and host BYU in 2021 and 2022. Perhaps this is in anticipation of going independent?
At any rate, Conference USA would be a fine place to welcome the Bears, provided the university stuck to the strict moral and legal codes set forth by the currently 14-school conference. This would give Baylor its local home games, and some top basketball competition in the form of WKU and Louisiana Tech.
TCU
A former Group-of-Five team, TCU should make it big at the Power Five level and we’re pulling for them to do so, but ultimately there’s just no one to take them. The Pac-12 is a longshot, and a long drive, even though TCU would certainly meet their high academic standards. Without that, the Horned Frogs are a bad fit for the SEC, and would be left returning to the Mountain West. This would only help the conference, as a return of TCU and coach Gary Patterson would be a huge get, on the level of, say, Urban Meyer returning to Utah (full disclosure: Urban Meyer will never return to Utah). TCU is a smaller school, only about 10,000 students, so even with their winning ways, this is their best case scenario if the Big 12 is not able to keep it together.
West Virginia
Depending on who you ask, the Mountaineers were a 2nd or 3rd or even 4th choice when the Big 12 desperately needed a tenth member back in 2012. TCU was a no-brainer, and while WVU was coming off multiple Big East championships, these were all under Rich Rodriguez, and these were all after the departure of Miami and Virginia Tech from the conference. When a Power Five school came calling, they jumped while the iron was hot, as it were, despite this making no geographical sense, and throwing a wrench into plans of the Big 12 ever considered expanding west.
Much like TCU, West Virginia could not survive on its own, and barring a surprise invite from the ACC (already full at 14), the American Athletic Conference is a likely landing spot, where the football squad would regularly struggle against Houston, Memphis, and South Florida. On the upside, though, UConn has been looking for a new rivalry trophy for some time.
Iowa State
Flying under the radar in hopes no one will notice they’re in this conference, we almost forgot they were in this conference. Cyclone football is regularly terrible and not worth mentioning; their basketball program has been been hit-and-miss in recent years, having seasons where they only had single-digit losses, and seasons where they miss the tournament entirely. This is absolutely a case for the AAC, in truth we’re not sure what the school is still doing in the Power Five in the first place. There is nothing the Cyclones offer that couldn’t be equaled or improved upon by Houston, Memphis or-- had the conference moved fast enough— Louisville.
A curious knick-knack to keep in the conference, Iowa State is further proof that the Big 12 doesn’t want to win, they just want to have ten members and collect a check.
Very soon, this will rear back and bite them, and we here in the underdog Group of Five equally await the opportunity to dine on their scraps.
No comments:
Post a Comment